Mortgage rates in 2026 remain one of the most common questions I get from both veterans and airline pilots. I published a full outlook on AeroCrew News at the start of the year — here’s the summary along with my current read on the market.
The Honest Outlook
Rates have remained elevated compared to the historic lows of 2020–2021, but the direction of travel matters as much as the number. The Fed’s posture on rate cuts, inflation data, and the bond market all feed into where mortgage rates land week to week.
For most of my clients, waiting for the “perfect rate” is the wrong strategy. The right strategy is buying when your financial situation and life situation align — then refinancing when rates drop. That’s why VA loans are particularly powerful: the VA IRRRL (Streamline Refinance) lets you refinance to a lower rate with minimal documentation when the time comes.
What This Means for Pilots
Pilots in early career stages — particularly those in their first 1–3 years at a major carrier — are often in the best position to buy now and refinance later. Your income trajectory is strongly upward, your expenses are often lower before family obligations grow, and locking in a property at today’s prices with a future refinance option is a sound strategy.
What This Means for Veterans
If you have a VA loan from 2020–2022 at a rate below 4%, stay put. If you have a higher-rate VA loan from 2023–2025, an IRRRL refinance may make sense depending on how much rates move this year.
Read the full 2026 rate outlook on AeroCrew News here.
Want a personalized rate analysis for your situation? I’ll tell you honestly whether now is the right time to buy, wait, or refinance.
Contact Spencer → | (877) 874-3368
Spencer Wartman | NMLS #2109932 | Trident Home Loans NMLS #65716
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